By the standards of synchronised global downturns in the past 1 , the current global recession has been short and mild. Our central projection for world growth going forward is predicated on a V-shaped recovery in the US, driving less rapid recoveries in other regions. Data in the first quarter...

Economic Outlook, which includes the supplement World Economic Prospects, is published by Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of Oxford Economics. Economic Outlook provides quarterly in-depth coverage of the UK macroeconomy, whilst World Economic Prospects provides timely analysis of developments and...

The dollar has finally fallen to below parity against the euro. Such a depreciation has long been expected but, for all that, the suddenness of this fall - triggered by a loss of confidence in US equities in the wake of recent accounting scandals - has been a surprise. This article explores the...

Entry to EMU at an inappropriate exchange rate could trigger a full-blown business cycle in the UK. Once inside EMU, the UK's response to a number of different economic shocks would change -partly because of the fixed exchange rate, and partly because of the common monetary policy. In...

The dilemmas facing the Monetary Policy Committee have intensified further this year. On the one hand, the recent sharp decline in equity markets, combined with the weakness of economic growth over the winter and the low level of inflation, suggests the need for lower interest rates. On the...