, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … nominal series. Countryby-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and …

, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and …

Inflation expectation is acknowledged to be an important indicator for policy makers and financial investors. To … capture a more accurate real-time estimate of inflation expectation on the basis of financial markets, we propose an arbitrage …-free model across different countries in a multi-maturity term structure, where we first estimate inflation expectation by …

Inflation co-moves across countries and several papers have shown that lags of this common inflation can help to … forecast country inflation. This paper constructs forecasts of common (or 'global') inflation using survey forecasts of country … inflation. These forecasts of global inflation have predictive power for global inflation at a medium horizon (12 months) but …

We calculate global inflation as the first principal component of inflation in a sample of emerging market and advanced … economies and find that it may account for an important fraction of headline and core inflation variance across countries. We … then show that global inflation is correlated with international commodity price variation, the global economic cycle, and …

This paper decomposes the time-varying effect of exogenous exchange rate shocks on euro area countries inflation into … over the past six years – especially in turning points periods. Our main results indicate that headline inflation in euro … sensitivity relies solely on a sustained surge in the degree of comovement for headline inflation, it is also based on a higher …

This article proposes a multivariate model of inflation with conditionally heteroskedastic common and country …-2009. It is found that various model specifications considered fit well the first and second order dynamics of inflation in the … G7. The estimated volatility of the common inflation component captures the international effects of the ‘Great …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. -- Inflation forecasting ; leading indicators ; monetary policy ; information …