We use noncausal autoregressions to examine the persistence properties of quarterly U.S. consumer price inflation from 1970:1-2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their conventional causal counterparts, but they allow for...

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980s and slightly increased...

The information flow in modern financial markets is continuous, but major stock exchanges are open for trading for only a limited number of hours. No consensus has emerged on how to deal with overnight returns when calculating and forecasting realized volatility in markets where trading does not...

In this paper, we propose a new noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model for non-Gaussian time series. The assumption of non-Gaussianity is needed for reasons of identifiability. Assuming that the error distribution belongs to a fairly general class of elliptical distributions, we develop an...

We argue that noncausal autoregressive models are especially well suited for modeling expectations. Unlike conventional causal autoregressive models, they explicitly show how the considered economic variable is affected by expectations and how expectations are formed. Noncausal autoregressive...

This paper exploits the fact that implied volatilities calculated from identical call and put options have often been empirically found to differ, although they should be equal in theory. We propose a new bivariate mixture multiplicative error model and show that it is a good fit to Nikkei 225...

We use the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) framework of Engle and Russell (1998) to study the effect of trading volume on price duration (ie the time lapse between consecutive price changes) of a stock listed both in the domestic and the foreign market. As a case study we use the...