In this research paper we search the evidence of our suspection on the existence of a combined process of chaotic and stochastic process. First, we test for normal and IID. Second, we test for nonlinearity. Then we applied best fit stochastic model. We test chaotic process in the residual of...

The uncertainty around monetary policy decision-making requires central banks to make extensive use of macroeconomic models both to analyze the current economic situation and to forecast the evolution of the main economic variables. The Small Economic Model (SEM) for Argentina describes in a...

The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively...

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian CGG Model based on Clarida et al. (2001, 2002). We find that the open economy framework can bring about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters...

The purpose of this work is to study the joint interaction of three founding elements of modern capitalism, namely endogenous technical change, income distribution and labour markets, within a low-dimensional nonlinear dynamic setup extending the Goodwin model. By going beyond the conservative...

This work summarizes recent advances in modelling and econometrics for alternative directions in macroeconomics and cycle theories. Starting from the definition of a cycle and continuing with a historical overview, some basic nonlinear models of the business cycle are introduced. Furthermore,...

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Russian economy. It takes into account a high dependence of the national economy on the oil export. The model consists of three production sectors: tradable and non-tradable sectors and oil extraction sector. Oil...

This paper explores the extent to which the lack of rationality of economic agents has affected the economic fluctuations of the U.S. hog market. The dynamic model of this paper adopts the framework of conventional rational expectations models and nests heterogeneity in expectations in the...

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Clarida, Gali and Gertler (2002). We find that the open economy framework can bring about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters...

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005). We find that the open economy framework brings about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters related to...