using output, inflation and unemployment systems. In order to assess the reliability of an output gap estimate two criteria … are adopted. Firstly, the estimate should have forecasting power over inflation. Secondly, the ex post statistical … hand, our UC models for the output gap have limited forecasting power for inflation, since they underperform an arbitrary …

model. This model has a clear dynamic interpretation. Further, the method does not require iterative estimation techniques …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

Federal Reserve nonborrowed reserve supply systematically responded to changes in inflation and in the output gap over … inflation varies considerably across time. Nonborrowed reserves decreased with inflation in the post-1979 period and increased …

economies, using dynamic cross-country panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves. We find that inflation expectations …We study the effects of professionals’ survey-based inflation expectations on inflation for a large number of 36 OECD … have a significantly positive effect on inflation. We also find that the effect of inflation expectations on inflation is …

inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

year ahead inflation. In addition, it turns out that the performance of MDS model forecasting is competitive in comparison … with other models found to be useful in the inflation forecasting literature. …

the Phillips curve over time. We consider different specifications and different measures for inflation. Furthermore, we … include stochastic volatility for the observation errors. Our estimation results are based on practical Bayesian state space ….S. headline inflation has remained empirically relevant over the years. …