To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence economic policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to Presidential elections. We use prediction markets tracking election outcomes as a means of precisely timing and calibrating the...

In recent election cycles, Republican members of Congress distanced themselves, at least rhetorically, from an unpopular party image and president. In more recent months, we've seen the economic crisis draw out fierce displays of partisanship over stimulus spending. Why should the behavior of...

To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence economic policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to Presidential elections. We use prediction markets tracking election outcomes as a means of precisely timing and calibrating the...