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For two periods an expert E announces his forecast of the state to a decision-maker D who chooses action. They disagree about the precision of the probability assessments. At the end of period 1 the state is observed. In the last period E makes announcements more extreme than his forecasts....
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assume an unbiased predictive model. In this paper, we address the fact that prediction bias can be nonnegligible in large VA … portfolio valuation and investigate the impact of prediction bias in both the modeling and sampling stages of active learning …. Our experimental results suggest that bias-based sampling can rival the efficacy of traditional ambiguity-based sampling …
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The ability to predict corruption is crucial to policy. Using rich micro-data from Brazil, we show that multiple … machine learning models display high levels of performance in predicting municipality-level corruption in public spending. We … predictors of corruption, while public sector and political features play a secondary role. Our findings have implications for …
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study comes up with a global ranking of the quality of (trade) governance. The paper also compares our bias-free indicator …
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