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The Irrelevance of Tests for Bias in Series of Macroeconomic Forecasts

Webb, Roy H. - 2012

The idea of rational expectations has revolutionized macroeconomics. Several authors believe that the idea can be easily tested by a simple econometric procedure. This paper, however, presents several reasons for questioning the relevance of such tests

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102527

The Relevance of Biases in Management Forecasts for Failure Prediction in Venture Capital Investments

Mokwa, Christopher Frederik - 2012

This study shows how venture capital investors can identify potential biases in multi-year management forecasts before an investment decision and derive significantly more accurate failure predictions. By advancing a cross-sectional projection method developed by prior research and using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104201

An Evaluation of Financial Analysts and Naive Methods in Forecasting Long-Term Earnings

Lacina, Michael - 2012

We evaluate the performance of financial analysts versus naïve models in making long-term earnings forecasts. Long-term earnings forecasts are generally defined as third-, fourth-, and fifth- year earnings forecasts. We find that for the fourth and fifth years, analysts' forecasts are no more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107094

Forecast Bias in Two Dimensions

Croushore, Dean - 2012

examine how tests for bias in expectations, measured using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, have changed over time. In … how to measure the accuracy of forecasts. The results of bias tests are found to depend on the subsample in question, as …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107655

Bias and Efficiency : A Comparison of Analyst Forecasts and Management Forecasts

Khan, Urooj - 2013

Extant literature documents that analyst forecasts are optimistically biased and fail to incorporate information in prior returns. This paper extends similar tests to examine management forecast characteristics. We find that, in contrast to analyst forecast errors, management forecast errors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089634

Predictive Performance and Bias - Evidence from Natural Gas Markets

Kremser, Thomas Reinhard - 2014

This paper sheds light on the differences and similarities in natural gas trading at the National Balancing Point in the UK and the Henry Hub located in the US. For this, we analyze traders' expectations and implement a mechanical forecasting model that allows traders to predict future spot...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067409

Bias in Memory Predicts Bias in Estimation of Future Task Duration

Roy, Michael M. - 2012

did, with these biased memories causing a corresponding bias in prediction. Two experi- ments were performed to determine … whether or not a systematic bias in memory could explain a similar system- atic bias in prediction. In support, it was found … that (1) the tendency to underestimate future duration disappears when the task is novel, (2) there is similar bias in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112931

Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns

Birz, Gene; Dutta, Sandip; Yu, Han - In: Financial management : FM 51 (2022) 1, pp. 169-191

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013166823

How Reliable are Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation for Countries with Limited Coverage?

Krkoska, Libor - 2009

This paper analyses the performance of GDP growth and inflation forecasts for 25 transition countries between 1994 and 2007, as provided by 13 international institutions, including multilateral, private and academic forecasters. The empirical results show that there is a positive correlation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153375

Time-Varying Realized GARCH Models for Tracking Measurement Error Bias in Volatility Forecasting

Gerlach, Richard H. - 2020

This paper proposes novel approaches to the modeling of attenuation bias effects in volatility forecasting. Our …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839665