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Using a value-weighted rather than an equally weighted regression, Easton and Sommers (2007) show that the upward bias … that the impact of any bias attributable to analysts' forecasts can be reduced to a statistically insignificant 0 ….4%. Second, we show that our estimates of the implied equity risk premium after removing the effect of this bias are between 3 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128708
The "home bias" phenomenon states that empirically, economic agents often under-utilize opportunities beyond their … country borders, and it is well-documented in various international pricing and purchase patterns. This bias manifests in the … than theoretically predicted to be optimal. Our paper documents another form of home bias, where market participants appear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136584
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside. When the omitted downside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137374
When the yield curve is modelled using an a ffine factor model, residuals may still contain relevant information and do not adhere to the familiar white noise assumption. This paper proposes a pragmatic way to improve out of sample performance for yield curve forecasting. The proposed adjustment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085245
Schultz’s (2003, Journal of Finance 58, 483–517) pseudo market-timing bias. Using standard simulation techniques, we find that … the bias is much too small to account for the observed predictive power of the equity share in new issues, corporate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091970
When a rate of return is regressed on a lagged stochastic regressor, such as a dividend yield, the regression disturbance is correlated with the regressor's innovation. The OLS estimator's finite-sample properties, derived here, can depart substantially from the standard regression setting....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471691
known factor structure. There, the bias in optimization can be reduced dramatically by using a covariance matrix based on a … portfolios, the bias in factor-model forecasts is less than previously thought. Lastly, we discuss the role of constraints in … mitigating risk forecasting bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154073
(Bias, Information, Noise) for disentangling the underlying processes that enable forecasters and forecasting methods to … improve – either by tamping down bias and noise in judgment or by ramping up the efficient extraction of valid information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841219