Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity with respect to the shape of the loss function. While some...

We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006-2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from)...

We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectationformation process in the US stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time as...

Die Trump-Regierung hat Mexiko Importzölle angedroht, auch um den Bau einer Mauer zwischen den Ländern zu finanzieren, sollte Mexiko die Kosten nicht freiwillig übernehmen. Hier wird untersucht, welche Auswirkungen ein solcher Zoll für beide Länder hätte.

We used Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006 - 2010 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from)...

Recent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find...

Using survey forecasts of a large number of Asian, European, and South American emerging market exchange rates, we studied empirically whether evidence of herding or antiherding behavior of exchange-rate forecasters can be detected in the cross-section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange-rate...

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that...

Der Geschäftsbereich Leistungssport (GBL) des Deutschen Olympischen Sportbundes (DOSB) agiert als Common Agent (Diener zweier Herren) der Sportverbände und des Bundesministern des Innern (BMI) bei der Verteilung der Sportfördermittel des BMI an die olympischen Spitzenverbände im DOSB. In...

We analyze the law of one price (LoP) based on BigMac and Fortnite prices. We find a positive but less than a perfect correlation between the over-/undervaluations of the two indices. While LoP holds for the Fortnite data, it does not hold for the BigMac data.