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Barro, Robert J. - 2013

From 1836 to 2011, the average real rate of price change for gold in the United States is 1.1% per year and the … gold's real rate of price change with consumption and GDP growth rates are small and statistically insignificantly … between gold services and ordinary consumption, the model can generate a mean real rate of price change within the (0.1%, 2 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087443

Bond risk premiums at the zero lower bound

Andreasen, Martin Møller; Jørgensen, Kasper; Meldrum, … - 2019

This paper documents a significantly stronger relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future excess bond returns on Treasuries from 2008-2015 than before 2008. This new predictability result is not matched by the standard shadow rate model with Gaussian factor dynamics, but...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181201

Forecasting financial returns with a structural macroeconomic model

Jondeau, Eric; Rockinger, Michael - 2016

This paper considers an institutional investor who is implementing a long-term portfolio allocation strategy using forecasts of financial returns. We compare the performance of two competing macro-finance models, an unrestricted Vector AutoRegression (VAR) and a fully structural Dynamic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011515898

Forecasting Nigerian stock market returns using ARIMA and artificial neural network models

Isenahd, Godknows M.; Olubusoye, Olusanya E. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 5 (2014) 2, pp. 25-48

The study reports empirical evidence that artificial neural network based models are applicable to forecasting of stock market returns. The Nigerian stock market logarithmic returns time series was tested for the presence of memory using the Hurst coefficient before the models were trained. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011488820

Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability

De Rezende, Rafael B. - 2015 - February 2015

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478516

Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion : what can we learn from survey expectations?

Schmeling, Maik (contributor); Schrimpf, Andreas (contributor) - 2008

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003727414

Capital Heterogeneity, Time-to-Build, and Return Predictability

Luo, Ding - 2020

I study how and why the two major types of business investment, equipment investment and structures investment, are differently linked to stock returns. I empirically show that equipment investment has a significantly stronger predictive power for stock market returns than structures investment,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853475

The Expected Real Return to Equity

Warusawitharana, Missaka - 2015

The expected return to equity — typically measured as a historical average — is a key variable in the decision making of investors. A recent literature uses analysts' forecasts, investor surveys or present-value relationships and finds estimates of expected returns that are sometimes much...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038081

Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

Eriksen, Jonas N. - 2018

This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937778

Stock Return Predictability with Taylor Rule Fundamentals

Jiang, Lei - 2015

This paper evaluates in-sample and out-of-sample stock return predictability with inflation and output gap, the variables that typically enter the Federal Reserve Bank's interest rate setting rule. To examine the role of monetary policy fundamentals for stock return predictability, we introduce...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015232