In this paper, we propose a new test, based on the stability of the largest Lyapunov exponent from different sample sizes, to detect chaotic dynamics in time series. We apply this new test to the simulated data used in the single-blind controlled competition among tests for nonlinearity and...

This paper applies a novel bootstrap method, the kernel block bootstrap, to quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic models with stationary strong mixing data. The method first kernel weights the components comprising the quasi-log likelihood function in an appropriate way and then samples...

This paper analyzes the higher-order properties of nested pseudo-likelihood (NPL) estimators and their practical implementation for parametric discrete Markov decision models in which the probability distribution is defined as a fixed point. We propose a new NPL estimator that can achieve...

In this paper, we examine the use of Box-Tiao's (1977) canonical correlation method as an alternative to likelihood-based inferences for vector error-correction models. It is now well-known that testing of cointegration ranks based on Johansen's (1995) ML-based method suffers from severe small...

To match the NBER business cycle features it is necessary to employ Generalised Dynamic Categorical (GDC) models that impose certain phase restrictions and permit multiple indexes. Theory suggests additional shape restrictions in the form of monotonicity and boundedness of certain transition...

This paper derives second-order expansions for the distributions of the Whittle and profile plug-in maximum likelihood estimators of the fractional difference parameter in the ARFIMA(0,d,0) with unknown mean and variance. Both estimators are shown to be second-order pivotal. This extends earlier...

In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods. The...