Near term forecasts, also called nowcasts, are most challenging but also most important when the economy experiences an abrupt change. In this paper, we explore the performance of models with different information sets and data structures in order to best nowcast US initial unemployment claims...

This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. First, we show that these estimates vary substantially across different versions of the PWT despite being derived from very similar underlying data and using almost identical methodologies; that this variability...

This paper compares the performance of different forecasting models of California house prices. Multivariate, theory-driven models are able to outperform atheoretical time series models across a battery of forecast comparison measures. Error correction models were best able to predict the...

This paper reconciles a debate on the nature of regional supply responses to demand shocks. Cities are found to exhibit dramatically different housing and labor market dynamics in response to local demand shocks, consistent with the hypothesis that the durable nature of the housing stock acts as...

This paper compares the performance of different forecasting models of California house prices. Multivariate, theory-driven models are able to outperform a theoretical time series models across a battery of forecast comparison measures. Error correction models were best able to predict the...