We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross-section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1F increase in the average summer temperature is associated...

We analyze the relationships between bubbles, capital flows, and economic activities in a rational bubble model with two large open economies. We establish a reinforcing relationship between global imbalances and bubbles. Capital flows from South to North facilitate the emergence and the size of...

We develop a simple model of defaultable debt and rational bubbles in the price of an asset, which can be pledged as collateral in a competitive credit pool. When the asset pledgeability is low, the down payment is high, and bubble investment is unleveraged, as in a standard rational bubble...

We develop a growth model with credit-fueled speculative asset bubbles. In our model, financial intermediaries (banks) use borrowed money to speculate on a risky asset bubble, which promises high returns as long as the bubble does not collapse. However, with limited liability, banks can default...

Puerto Rico's unique characteristics as a U.S. territory allow us to examine the channels through which (sub)sovereign default risk can have real effects on the macroeconomy. Post-2012, during the period of increased default probabilities, the cointegrating relationship between real activity in...

Puerto Rico's unique characteristics as a U.S. territory allow us to examine the channels through which (sub)sovereign default risk can have real effects on the macroeconomy. Post-2012, during the period of increased default probabilities, the cointegrating relationship between real activity in...

I show that reputation alone can sustain nominal sovereign debt, which is subject to both the risks of default and opportunistic devaluations. Nominal debt combined with a countercyclical exchange rate policy allows more hedging against shocks than real savings if markets are incomplete. Thus,...

In an influential paper, Bulow and Rogoff (1989) prove that in a competitive financial market, the threat of credit exclusion alone cannot sustain repayment of sovereign debt, as the defaulting government can still enter cash-in-advance insurance contracts. However, their result relies on an...

We develop a tractable rational bubbles model with financial frictions, downward nominal wage rigidity, and the zero lower bound. The interaction of financial frictions and nominal rigidities leads to a "bubbly pecuniary externality," where competitive speculation in risky bubbly assets can...