Puerto Rico's unique characteristics as a U.S. territory allow us to examine the channels through which (sub)sovereign default risk can have real effects on the macroeconomy. Post-2012, during the period of increased default probabilities, the cointegrating relationship between real activity in...

We provide a novel characterization of self-enforcing debt limits in a general equilibrium framework of risk sharing with limited commitment, where defaulters are subject to recourse (a fractional loss of current and future endowments) and exclusion from future credit. We show that debt limits...

We provide a novel characterization of self-enforcing debt limits in a general equilibrium framework of risk sharing with limited commitment, where defaulters are subject to recourse (a fractional loss of current and future endowments) and exclusion from future credit. We show that debt limits...

We show that the interaction between political turnover and corruption significantly affects the inter-temporal optimization problems of governments by inducing a “corruption-temptation tax” in the Euler condition. Governments treat corruption in the same way that rational consumers treat a...

We provide a simple rational bubble model demonstrating that a concentration of income is necessary and sufficient for the existence of equilibria with risky speculative bubbles. Income concentration among top earners leads to excess savings and depressed interest rates, which facilitate the...

We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of extreme weather shocks on the United States economy over the past sixty years. To identify changes in extreme weather patterns, we use the Actuaries Climate Index, which tracks changes in extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, high wind, and...