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Economic cycles and their synchronization : a survey of spectral properties

Sella, L.; Vivaldo, G.; Groth, A.; Ghil, Michael - 2013

The present work applies several advanced spectral methods to the analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations in three countries of the European Union: Italy, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. We focus here in particular on singular-spectrum analysis (SSA), which provides valuable spatial and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010225969

The role of oscillatory modes in US business cycles

Groth, Andreas; Ghil, Michael; Hallegatte, Stéphane; … - 2012

We apply the advanced time-and-frequency-domain method of singular spectrum analysis to study business cycle dynamics in a set of nine U.S. macroeconomic indicators. This method provides a robust way to identify and reconstruct shared oscillations, whether intermittent or modulated. We address...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009535525

Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization : A Survey of Spectral Properties

Sella, Lisa - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060721

The changing transmission of uncertainty shocks in the US : an empirical analysis

Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2014

This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the US economy has changed over time. To this end, we develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on a range of variables. We find...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799

Extensive versus intensive margin over the business cycle : new evidence for Germany and the United States

Herzog-Stein, Alexander; Nüß, Patrick - 2016

den USA. Frühere Untersuchungen haben gezeigt, dass die extensive Margin dominiert und, dass, zweitens, in beiden Ländern … der extensiven und der intensiven Margin in den USA im zeitlichen Verlauf relativ stabil ist, variiert deren relative … den USA. Allerdings hängt ihre tatsächliche quantitative Bedeutung in erheblichem Umfang von der Wahl des …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011433362

The cost of benefits, financial conditions, and employment dynamics in recent U.S. Recoveries

Gu, Grace Weishi - 2013

This paper explores how much firm-paid employee benefits and firms' financial conditions have contributed to delayed employment recoveries relative to output since 1990, using a DSGE model. Empirically, I document the underexplored pro-cyclicality of per worker benefit costs. Post-1990 period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227889

Health and health behaviors during the worst of times : evidence from the Great Recession

Tekin, Erdal; McClellan, Chandler; Minyard, Karen Jean - 2013

While previous studies have shown that recessions are associated with better health outcomes and behaviors, the focus of these studies has been on the relatively milder recessions of the late 20th century. In this paper, we examine if the previously established counter-cyclical pattern in health...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009786469

Business cycles and compositional variation in US unemployment

Abbring, Jaap H.; Berg, Gerard J. van den; Ours, Jan C. van - 1997

In the past decades several features of U.S. unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010336863

Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US

Albonico, Alice; Tirelli, Patrizio; Paccagnini, Alessia - 2016

This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434680

Model-based business cycle and financial cycle decomposition for Europe and the U.S.

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lit, Rutger; Lucas, André - 2016

We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520505

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