in the next quarter. Our oil-response forecast strategy earns especially high returns in periods that follow large …

estimation with fixed and random effects is applied to examine the impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock returns …

forecasts. Yet bias does not necessarily invalidate a forecast, nor does it impinge on its relative quality. We find that …

predictability, popular predictors from the literature fail to outperform the simple historical average benchmark forecast in out … model restrictions, forecast combination, diffusion indices, and regime shifts—improve forecasting performance by addressing …

predict that this reluctance allows each firm's conservative forecast to be heavily influenced by the firm's past performance …

them. I find that negative management forecast surprises lead to a –5.9% abnormal return around the forecast and a 1 ….9% abnormal return and a –1.7% correction. The level of the stock market overreaction varies with the forecast and firm … characteristics, but the marginal impact remains the same: a 1% change in the stock market reaction around the forecast is associated …