Preferences over risky alternatives can be elicited by different methods, including direct pairwise choices and willingness-to-accept valuations. The results are frequently at odds, casting doubts on the foundations of economics. We develop a stochastic choice model predicting when...

Democratic societies have been increasingly confronted with extreme, knife-edge election outcomes that affect everybody's lives and contribute to social instability. Even if political compromises based on social conventions as equity or economic arguments as efficiency are available, polarized...

Surveys and opinion polls are essential instruments to elicit societal preferences and uncover differences between socioeconomic or demographic groups. However, survey data is noisy, and survey bias is ubiquitous, limiting the reliability and usefulness of standard analyses. We provide a new...

When choice is stochastic, revealed preference analysis often relies on random utility models. However, it is impossible to infer preferenceswithout assumptions on the distribution of utility noise. We show that this difficulty can be overcome by using response time data. A simple condition on...

Transitivity is perhaps the most fundamental choice axiom and, therefore, almost all economic models assume that preferences are transitive. The empirical literature has regularly documented violations of transitivity, but these violations pose little problem as long as they are simply a result...

Over the last fifty years, game theory has evolved from a mathematical theory of optimal behaviour in stylized situations ('games') to a general theory of human behaviour, be it actually observed or normatively desirable. Its scope includes both the mathematical modelling and analysis of...

When an economic agent makes a choice, stochastic models predicting those choices can be updated. The structural assumptions embedded in the prior model condition the updated one, to the extent that the same evidence produces different predictions even when previous ones were identical. We...

We investigate the implications of Salience Theory for the classical preference reversal phenomenon, where monetary valuations contradict risky choices. It has been stated that one factor behind reversals is that monetary valuations of lotteries are inflated when elicited in isolation, and that...