The “Issues and Leaders” model shows that aggregate votes for President in U.S. elections from 1972 to 2012 can be accurately predicted from people’s perceptions of the candidates’ issue handling competence and leadership qualities. For the past five elections, the model’s ex ante...

The “Issues and Leaders” model shows that aggregate votes for President in U.S. elections from 1972 to 2012 can be accurately predicted from people’s perceptions of the candidates’ issue handling competence and leadership qualities. For the past five elections, the model’s ex ante...

With issue 17, Foresight begins a new column on prediction markets, an increasingly widespread mechanism for aggregating predictions from dispersed individuals. Column Editor Andreas Graefe will keep you apprised of new developments in the field and how likely these are to succeed. For an...

Andreas extends Carol Gebert’s discussion of the hurdles to implementation of prediction markets (issue 9) with his thoughts on defining the prediction event and the often delicate issue of the types of incentives needed to motivate trader participation in the market. Copyright International...

Women are severely underrepresented in American politics, especially among Republicans. This underrepresentation may result from women being less willing to run for office, from voter bias against women, or from political structures that make it more difficult for women to compete. Here we show...

Women are severely underrepresented in American politics, especially among Republicans. This underrepresentation may result from women being less willing to run for office, from voter bias against women, or from political structures that make it more difficult for women to compete. Here we show...