We use prediction market data from Betfair, the world's largest Internet betting exchange, to measure the electability of 2016 Presidential candidates using regressions that compare the general election contest and party nomination win probabilities for each candidate. A candidate who is more...

This document is a follow up to the paper by Ahmed and Pesaran (2020, AP) and reports state-level forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election. It updates the 3,107 county level data used by AP and uses the same machine learning techniques as before to select the variables used in forecasting...

While combining forecasts is well-known to reduce error, the question of how to best combine forecasts remains. Prior research suggests that combining is most beneficial when relying on diverse forecasts that incorporate different information. Here I provide evidence in support of this...

We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided...

The “Issues and Leaders” model shows that aggregate votes for President in U.S. elections from 1972 to 2012 can be accurately predicted from people’s perceptions of the candidates’ issue handling competence and leadership qualities. For the past five elections, the model’s ex ante...

The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll (CPEP) was conducted within the American Life Panel, an internet panel recruited through traditional probability sampling to ensure representativeness. Because it asks the same respondents repeatedly about their voting preferences, observed...

This paper develops a recursive model of voter turnout and voting outcomes at U.S. county level to investigate the socioeconomic determinants of recent U.S. presidential elections. It is shown that the relationship between many socioeconomic variables and voting outcomes is not uniform across...

This paper develops a recursive model of voter turnout and voting outcomes at the U.S. county level to investigate the socioeconomic determinants of recent U.S. presidential elections. It exploits cross-section variations across U.S. counties and investigates the key determinants of the 2016...