One of the OECD Economic Department’s key vehicles for analysing effects and international spillovers of macroeconomic policy as well as assessing risks to the global outlook is the macroeconometric model, INTERLINK. In the context of the Department’s regular projection exercises the model...

We analyse the evolution of Private Consumption on Health, having into account that there are substitution effects between public and private expenditure in OECD countries. From the analysis of the evolution of these variables our main conclusion is that the increase of expenditure on Health,...

The economic and financial crisis that emerged in 2008 also initiated an intense discussion on macroeconomic research and the role of economists in society. The debate focuses on three main issues. Firstly, it is argued that economists failed to predict the crisis and to design early warning...

This paper presents the recent developments of macro-econometric modeling and discusses their advantages and limits. We first present the Sims critique and the Lucas critique. These two critiques have opened two new ways of macro-modeling. On the one hand, the Structural VAR approach allows to...

This Occasional Study wraps up the modelling work that has been done in recent years regarding DNB's multi-country model EUROMON. It offers a description of the current version of the model and provides information about its simulation properties through the analysis of variety of standard...

Questo lavoro presenta la stima di un modello econometrico del credito bancario alle imprese in Italia per il periodo 1988-2004. I prestiti bancari sono espressi in funzione del rapporto tra investimenti fissi e margine operativo lordo (che approssima il fabbisogno di finanziamenti esterni),...

Although the average inflation rate of developed countries in the postwar period has been greater than zero, much of the extensive literature on monetary policy has employed models that assume zero steady-state inflation. In comparing four estimated medium-scale NK DSGE models with real and...

This paper presents preliminary results of modelling the Lithuanian block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model, LT_MCM. The theoretical structure of the LT_MCM is in line with most current mainstream macro models, i.e. supply factors determine the long-run equilibrium, while output is demand...

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model's...

This article describes a machine learning based approach applied to acquiring empirical forecasting models. The approach makes use of the LAGRAMGE equation discovery tool to define a potentially very wide range of equations to be considered for the model. Importantly, the equations can vary in...