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Random Matrix Theory and the Evolution of Business Cycle Synchronisation, 1886-2006

Ormerod, Paul - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132338

Efficiency, distortions and factor utilization during the interwar period

Klein, Alexander; Otsu, Keisuke - 2013

In this paper, we analyze the International Great Depression in the US and Western Europe using the business cycle accounting method a la Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (CKM 2007). We extend the business cycle accounting model by incorporating endogenous factor utilization which turns out to be an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010188538

The time for austerity : estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy

Jordà, Òscar; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014

After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010463587

Business cycles in history

Spree, Reinhard - 2002

. Accordingly this paper has to two objectives: Firstly, it presents economic theory explaining business cycles to historians … Germany (2). Section 3 deals with business cycle theory. To start with, it highlights the long tradition of theories that have … developments in business cycle theory (3.3). Section 4 discusses the application of business cycle theory in historical research …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010440954

The role of sentiment in the economy of the 1920s

Kabiri, Ali; James, Harold; Landon-Lane, John S.; … - 2020

John Maynard Keynes composed The General Theory as a response to the Great Crash and Great Depression with all their … expectations his new theory set out has been widely accepted. The role of "animal spirits" he proscribed (i.e. the role of emotion …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012224228

Business cycle narratives

Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders - 2019 - This version 28 December 2018

Research about narratives' role in economics is scarce, while real word experience and research in other sciences suggest they matter a lot. This article proposes a view and methodology for quantifying the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962290

Random Matrix Theory and Macro-Economic Time-Series : An Illustration Using the Evolution of Business Cycle Synchronisation, 1886-2006

Ormerod, Paul - 2011

The aim of this paper is to show that random matrix theory (RMT) can be a useful addition to the economist?s tool … may be dominated by noise rather than by true information. Random matrix theory was developed in physics to overcome this …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132141

On the Measurement of Business Cycles and Growth Cycles

Zarnowitz, Victor; Ozyildirim, Ataman - 2002

Business cycles and growth cycles should not be mixed or confused, as is unfortunately often the case in discussions of economic growth. This paper compares various approaches to time series decomposition for the analysis of business cycles and growth cycles as related but separate phenomena. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014109696

Tradeoffs over rate cycles : activity, inflation and the price level

Forbes, Kristin; Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan - 2025

Central banks often face tradeoffs in how their monetary policy decisions impact economic activity (including employment), inflation and the price level. This paper assesses how these tradeoffs have evolved over time and varied across countries, with a focus on understanding the post-pandemic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015405430

Credit, bankruptcy, and aggregate fluctuations

Nakajima, Makoto; Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor - 2019

We document the cyclical properties of unsecured consumer credit (procyclical and volatile) and of consumer bankruptcies (countercyclical and very volatile). Using a growth model with household heterogeneity in earnings and assets with access to unsecured credit (because of bankruptcy costs) and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012197797