Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die Grundlagen des P*-Ansatzes und vergleicht seine Prognoseleistung mit derjenigen nicht-monetärer Inflationsindikatoren für den Euro-Raum. Die Relevanz der Quantitätstheorie, die Stabilität der Geldnachfrage und die Rolle von Geldmengen im Transmissionsmechanismus...

Gibt es Unterschiede, wie europäische Länder Evaluationen durchführen und nutzen? Dies bedarf einer qualifizierten Antwort. Evaluation hat sich in verschiedenen Perioden und unter unterschiedlichen externen und internen Einflüssen von Land zu Land in verschiedenem Umfang entwickelt. Zu den...

This paper addresses the issues of identification and dating of the Euro-zone business cycle by using the Markov-switching approach innovated by Hamilton in his analysis of the US business cycle. Regime shifts in the stochastic process of economic growth in the Euro-zone are identified by...

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the adjustment for seasonal effects with different seasonal adjustment methods, the possible pre-treatment for calendar effects and the different order of aggregation and adjustment for the determination of the turning points of the European business...

Most of the Euro-zone economic short-term indicators are computed through aggregation from Member States data. The seasonally adjusted figures can be calculated by seasonally adjusting the aggregate (direct approach) or aggregating the seasonally adjusted national data (indirect approach)....

One major shortcoming in Euroland's National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) consists in the missing distinction between exports (imports) on the one hand and dispatches (arrivals) between the member states on the other hand. In this paper "true" NIPA trade is derived from official figures....

We examine the indicator property of the monetary indicator for inflation. Using a P*-model, Svensson (2000) shows theoretically that the relationship between these two variables is rather tenuous. The present study employs empirical evidence on the relations in his model to quantify its...

[...] in many situations a decision does not have to be made immediately, but can be delayed until additional information has been acquired. Sequential analysis seems particularly applicable to the problem of predicting turning points in the business cycle (Palash and Radecki, 1985). Elaborating...

This paper investigates the Euro-area business cycle using a multivariate autoregressive time series model with cointegration. The cointegration restrictions help to identify permanent and transitory shocks which form the stochastic part of trend and cyclical GDP, respectively. The...

In zahlreichen Diskussionen wird immer wieder Zuwanderung als ein mögliches Instrument genannt, um die demographischen Probleme der umlagefinanzierten Rentensysteme in Europa zu lindern. Diese eingeschränkte Betrachtungsweise wird aber dem sehr viel weiterreichenden Phänomen der...