This paper investigates whether there was contagion through the foreign exchange market in the Asian crisis, and, if so, determines the contribution of contagion to the crisis. More specifically, we examine whether the effect of the exchange market pressure (EMP) of Thailand, the origin of the...

Existing gravity models of trade based on panel data are often static, that is, they only allow for contemporaneous effects of regressors on trade. However, there are numerous economic arguments suggesting that trade is a dynamic process. Hence, we extend the static model by including lags of...

It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for the international coordination at the fiscal level. We survey the issues involved with such coordination of fiscal policy as a demand management tool and we use a simple model to investigate the cincumstances under which...

Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our...

While virtually all currency crisismodels recognise that the fate of a currency peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, they seldom model how this is done. We incorporate themechanics of speculation and the interest rate defence against it in the model ofMorris and Shin (American...

It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for international coordination at the fiscal level. We survey the issues involved in such coordination in the perspective of macroeconomic stabilization. A simple model identifies the circumstances under which coordination may be...

We show how to assess identifying assumptions for a low-frequency SVAR using estimates from a higher-frequency model. In our application quarterly data support identified annual SVARs in government spending and output by assuming zero within-year impact of output on spending.