This paper constructs a theoretical model to show how the credibility of a country s commitment to an international gold standard regime is driven by fundamental determinants such as: 1) shifts in domestic policy, 2) a breakdown in cooperation between central banks, and 3) unilateral...

This paper addresses two questions. First, what causes the paper-bill spread to vary over time in anticipation of income fluctuations ? Second, why has the predictive power of the spread declined in recent years? Consistent with previous empirical work, the paper provides evidence for the...