A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts,...

Judgemental forecasting of exchange rates is critical for nancial decision-making. Detailed investigations of the potential eiquest;ects of time-series characteristics on judgemental currency forecasts demand the use of simulated series where the form of the signal and probability distribution...

An experiment is reported which compares the judgmental forecasting performance of experts and novices using simulated currency series with differing trend strengths. Analyses of directional probability forecasts reveal: (1) significant effects of trend strength on all aspects of predictive...

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages,...

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary...

ln this study we compare the probability judgment accuracy of subjects from the United States and Turkey. Three different response modes were employed - numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. The questions employed in the study were restricted to two-alternative. general-knowledge...

Highly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the ''processperformance paradox.'' The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made...

This article describes an exploratory investigation of the risk perceptions of experts and novices in relation to helicopter operations, under the conditions where the participants are matched on various characteristics previously found to affect perceptions, such as demographic, gender, and...

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability predictions of exchange rate movements. In particular, a range of new predictive performance measures is identified to highlight specific expressions of strengths and weaknesses in...

This study aims to explore the differences in various dimensions of forecasting accuracy that may result from the task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts. In particular, we examine the effects of using multiple-interval and dichotomous formats on the performance of portfolio...