This study builds upon the existing literature on the Working curve and backwardation to explore the impact of storage regimes on the volatility measures of substitute agricultural commodity markets. We investigate the impact of commodity fundamentals (storage regime and stocks-to-use ratio),...

Output markets usually respond to input price changes asymmetrically, with prices rising faster than they fall, known as the rockets and feathers pattern. We expand the vector autoregressive quantile (VARQ) model by incorporating quantile cointegrating relationships to investigate such...

Replaced with revised version of paper on 06/11/07.

We estimate a model of common and commodity-specific, high- and low-frequency factors, built on the spline-GARCH model of Engle and Rangel (2008) to explain the period of exceptionally high price volatility in commodity markets during 2006-2008. We find that decomposing realized volatility into...

Most financial asset returns exhibit volatility persistence. We investigate this phenomenon in the context of daily returns in commodity futures markets. We show that the time gap between the arrival of news to the markets and the delivery time of futures contracts is the fundamental variable in...

This study analysed forecasts for all US corn, soya bean and wheat categories published within the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE ) reports over the 1987/88 through 2009/10 marketing years in an attempt to identify patterns and better understand when the USDA forecasters...