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In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014356958
Exchange rates as well as relative price level and output movements are decomposed into components associated with nominal shocks as well as shocks to aggregate supply and aggregate demand. In contrast to previous analyses of such decompositions based on statistical vector autoregression (VAR)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010494184
economic fundamentals—both observed and unobserved—affect the long-term volatility of offshore exchange rates. First, trade … openness attenuates the long-term volatility, while financial openness has no effect on volatility. Specifically, the use of … bilateral currency swap agreements and the relaxation of capital control are associated with lower volatility, while stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322704
How does international financial integration affect national price levels? To analyze this question, this paper formulates a two-country open economy sticky-price model under either segmented or complete asset markets. It is shown that the effect of financial integration, i.e. moving from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991245
rate puzzles. One such puzzle is the fact that nominal exchange rates are enormously volatile, but that this volatility … parity prediction. The gravity prediction matches the volatility of actual inflation, and tracks its path closely. The … of bilateral trade is negatively correlated with bilateral exchange rate volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014069461
While the trade channel indicates that an exchange rate depreciation will stimulate domestic economic activity, the financial channel can have the opposite effect. When banks and non-banks have foreign currency liabilities, an exchange rate depreciation has valuation effects that can lead to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977169
We study the quarterly bilateral real exchange rate and the relative price of non-traded to traded goods for 1225 country pairs over 1980-2005. We show that the two variables are positively correlated, but that movements in the relative price measure are smaller than those in the real exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012722646
There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012317340
that although "commodity" and "industrial" EME are heterogeneous, REER volatility tends to be higher among the former. Yet …, REER volatility between emerging and advanced countries does not differ very much, apart from a few EME countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012107936
This paper assesses the financial channel of exchange rate fluctuations for emerging countries and the link to the conventional trade channel. We analyze whether the effective exchange rate affects GDP growth, the domestic credit and the global liquidity measure as the credit in foreign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607883