This paper contains an empirical study of the effects of credibility on the cost of disinflation. The analysis is based on a dataset comprised of seventy-two disinflation episodes from 19 OECD countries. We measure the "ex ante credibility" of a disinflation episode as the probability of a...

This paper proposes a Wicksellian alternative to the IS-LM/AS-AD model that serves as the centerpiece of most intermediate macroeconomics textbooks. The model has a simple, intuitive structure that is consistent with modern monetary theory and the actual operating procedures of the Federal...

This paper argues that the Federal Reserve’s failure to control inflation during the 1970s was due to constraints imposed by the political environment. Members of the Fed understood that a serious attempt to tackle inflation would be unpopular with the public and would generate opposition from...

This paper uses a vector autoregression model to estimate the role of fiscal and monetary policy stabilizers during the last four U.S. recessions. The data show that both types of stabilizers have had a large stabilizing effect. These results imply that adopting a balanced budget rule would...

I examine the extent to which the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions are correlated with the expressed wishes of private sector lobbying groups. I update and extend work by Havrilesky (1990, 1993) regarding the effect of signals from the banking industry through the Federal Advisory...

Drawing on an analysis of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) documents, this paper argues that political pressures on the Federal Reserve were an important contributor to the rise in inflation in the United States in the 1970s. Members of the FOMC understood that a serious attempt to tackle...

This Companion provides a timely and engaging treatment of Hyman Minsky’s approach to economics, which is enjoying a renewed appreciation because of its prescient analysis of the slow but sure transformation of the capitalist economy in the post-war period. Many have called the global...