Economic derivatives allow traders to take direct positions on the outcomes of macroeconomic data releases. In contrast to survey-based measures, the prices of economic derivatives provide information on the entire probability distribution underlying these expectations, not just point estimates....

Commodity prices rose strongly in recent years until mid-2008, driving inflation up worldwide. This feature investigates aspects of the impact of the rise in food and energy prices on headline inflation and its dynamics using a dataset for CPI inflation and its food and energy components that...

Central bank communication has changed dramatically over the past decade, with some central banks providing guidance about or explicit forecasts of likely future policy rates. One frequently made argument against the provision by central banks of such guidance or forecasts is that it runs the...

We analyse how movements in the components of sovereign bond yields in the United States affect long-term rates in 10 advanced and 21 emerging economies. The paper documents significant global spillovers from both the expectations and term premia components of long-term rates in the United...

The literature on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools is still in its infancy and has so far provided only limited guidance for policy decisions. In recent years, however, increasing efforts have been made to fill this gap. Progress has been made in embedding macroprudential policy...

The Federal Reserve re-established a swap line with the European Central Bank in response to the international liquidity stresses created by the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We examine the swap line's effectiveness in addressing these stresses in 2010–11. We find that announcements about...