This paper first shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the European Central Bank (ECB) can influence global energy prices. Second, through Lucas critique-robust counterfactual analysis, we uncover that the ECB's ability to affect fast-moving energy prices plays an important role in the...

Following the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the European Central Bank (ECB) was confronted with an unprecedented increase in energy prices. This led to consumer price inflation in the euro area far beyond the ECB's inflation target of two percent, at times up to 10 percent. At the same time,...

In der Zeit nach der Corona-Pandemie sah sich die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) einem beispiellosen Anstieg der Energiepreise gegenüber. Dieser führte zu einer Konsumentenpreisinflation im Euroraum von zeitweise über zehn Prozent, weit über dem EZB-Inflationsziel von zwei Prozent....

Seit Mitte des vergangenen Jahres steigt die Inflation im Euroraum beträchtlich. Grund sind insbesondere die verteuerten Energiepreise. Der russische Angriff auf die Ukraine seit Ende Februar hat diesen Trend noch einmal verschärft. Um die Preise stabil zu halten, müsste die Europäische...

Inflation has been growing considerably since the middle of 2021, with rising energy prices driving the increase in particular. Since the end of February 2022, the trend has also been exacerbated by the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. To keep prices stable, the European Central Bank must...

The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vectorautoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price...

We develop a two-country business-cycle model of the US and the rest of the world with dollar dominance in trade invoicing, in cross-border credit, and in safe assets. The interplay between these elements - dollar trinity - rationalizes salient features of the Global Financial Cycle in the data:...

How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They...