This paper explores alternative forecast approaches for mortgage credit risk for forward periods of up to seven years. Using data from US prime mortgage loans from 2000 to 2016, we find that common borrower, loan contract and external features are significant in explaining credit risk over...

The current financial crisis had its origins in the US subprime mortgage market and led to downturns in global equity, credit and commodity markets. This paper identifies the lack of economic information in risk valuation models as one reason why the financial industry was unable to predict,...

This paper provides an empirical study, which assesses the historical performance of credit rating agency (CRA) ratings for securitizations before and during the financial crisis. The paper finds that CRAs do not sufficiently address the systematic risk of the underlying collateral pools as well...

This paper provides an empirical study, which assesses the historical performance of credit rating agency (CRA) ratings for securitizations before and during the financial crisis. The paper finds that CRAs do not sufficiently address the systematic risk of the underlying collateral pools as well...

The mismatch between credit ratings o fstructured finance transactions and their true risks has been a source of the Global Financial Crisis which manifested in criticism of models and techniques applied by credit rating agencies (CRA). This paper provides an empirical study which assesses the...

Financial institutions are faced with the challenge to forecast future credit portfolio losses. It is common practice to focus on portfolio models consisting of a limited set of parameters, such as the probability of default, asset correlation, loss given default or exposure at default. A simple...

This paper provides an empirical study, which assesses the historical performance of credit rating agency (CRA) ratings for securitizations before and during the financial crisis. The paper finds that CRAs do not sufficiently address the systematic risk of the underlying collateral pools as well...

Recent studies find a positive correlation between default and loss given default rates of credit portfolios. In response, financial regulators require financial institutions to base their capital on 'Downturn' loss rates given default which are also known as Downturn LGDs. This article proposes...