When faced with decision-relevant information, decision-makers are often exposed to a multiplicity of different models, or accounts of how information should be interpreted. This paper proposes a theory of model selection — an account of what models decision-makers find compelling, and...

In tension with the standard assumption that individuals understand how to act on their beliefs about economic quantities, research measuring subjective beliefs has found that the relationship between beliefs and behavior is often quantitatively weak and that correcting beliefs often fails to...

Manipulation of financial markets has long been a concern. With the automation of financial markets, the potential for high frequency market manipulation has arisen. Yet, such behavior is hidden within vast sums of order book data, making it difficult to define and to detect. We develop a...

The class of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models has proved particularly valuable in modelling time series with time varying volatility. These include financial data, which can be particularly heavy tailed. It is well understood now that the tail heaviness of...

The class of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models has proved particularly valuable in modelling time series with time varying volatility. These include financial data, which can be particularly heavy tailed. It is well understood now that the tail heaviness of...

The class of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models has proved particularly valuable in modelling time series with time varying volatility. These include financial data, which can be particularly heavy tailed. It is well understood now that the tail heaviness of...