In this paper we investigate the dynamic effects of money supply (‘nominal’) shocks and technology (‘real’) shocks on real stock returns on the basis of the impulse response function of a restricted vector autoregressive model. Appropriate identifying restrictions are derived from the...

This paper aims at decomposing the forecast error variance of excess returns in five major European stock markets into the variance of news about future excess returns, dividends and real interest rates. Special emphasis is given on the issue of stationarity and structural breaks in the...

The paper presents empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality of monetary policy in the UK based on the methodology developed by Fisher and Seater. Money is found to be long-run neutral with respect to real GDP and real equity prices. However, in the short to medium term permanent positive...

This paper assesses the predictable component of South East Asian stock markets using a bootstrap resampling method to estimate the small sample distributions of variance ratio statistics. We find evidence of mean reversion in long horizon dollar adjusted excess returns. The robustness of the...

We propose a new methodology for decomposing the persistence of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP). By directly comparing the impulse response function (IRF) of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, where the real exchange rate is Granger caused by a set of candidate variables, with...

This paper decomposes the overall market beta of common stocks into four parts reflecting uncertainty related to the long-run dynamics of stock-specific and market-wide cash flows and discount rates. We employ a discrete time version of Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model to test...

This paper shows that during the 1990s the process of gradual economic and monetary integration, which eventually led to EMU, also resulted in a reduction in the equity cost of capital. A similar reduction was not present in the three EU countries which chose not to enter the Eurozone. There was...

The launch of the single currency in Europe in January 1999 was preceded by a period of regulatory harmonization, convergence in bond yields and inflation rates, and strict fiscal policy across the Eurozone countries. We examine whether the 1990s also were characterized by increased stock market...

In a surprise move during a crisis, the ECB excluded Greek Government Bonds from the set of eligible collateral in monetary policy operations. In turn, Greek banks turned to Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to meet their funding needs. ELA replenished losses from all funding sources,...