The authors examine how the co-movement between daily stock and Treasury bond returns varies with stock market uncertainty. They use the lagged implied volatility from equity index options to provide an objective, observable, and dynamic measure of stock market uncertainty. The authors find that...

The January Barometer states that the sign of the stock-markets returns in January can predict the subsequent 11-month stock-market return over February to December. Cooper et al. (2010) show that the best way to use the January Barometer is to be long following positive Januarys and invest in...

We study the effect of market cycles on both medium-run and long-run relative strength trading strategies. We find that the payoffs over both horizons tend to be relatively higher within a market state (rising or falling markets) but substantially lower when including transitions between states....

We re-examine contrarian relative-strength profits in one-month stock returns with a focus on: (1) the post-discovery vs.pre-discovery evidence, (2) size-based variation, and (3) time-series patterns. Over the last two decades since the initial documentation in the academic literature, profits...

In this article I provide new evidence on the role of nonlinear drift and stochastic volatility in interest rate modeling. I compare various model specifications for the short-term interest rate using the data from five countries. I find that modeling the stochastic volatility in the short rate...

We document that the fundamental strength (FSCORE) of a firm exerts a significant influence on the performance of short-term reversal strategies. Past losers with strong fundamentals significantly outperform past winners with weak fundamentals. Our FSCORE approach is complementary to Da et al....