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exchange rates dynamics in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the classic finances theory; 3) the description on the … theory; 4) the derivation of the time dependent/time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory; 5) the …/time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory; 6) the discussion on the developed software program with the embedded …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013057
This paper tests whether it is possible to improve point, quantile and density forecasts of realized volatility by … more information for the evolution of the volatility distribution beyond that contained in its own past. The best …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013804
(S&P, FTSE, CAC, SMI and DAX), we separate option-implied volatility into Ross-recovered true expected volatility and a … risk preference factor. We investigate whether these factors perform better to forecast realized volatility if constructed … evidence of significantly improved realized volatility forecasts. Models using Ross-recovered value-weighted global measures of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851207
volatility. Specifically, we combined Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Non-negative Matrix … realized volatility. The results showed that reduced models were able to perform in a similar way or even outperforms the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233916
predictive capability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium -- the difference … between expected realized volatility and model-free implied volatility -- reflects the costs of insuring against currency … volatility fluctuations, and the strategy sells high-insurance-cost currencies and buys low-insurance-cost currencies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035847
This paper examines whether financial statement information can predict future realized volatility incremental to the … volatility implied by option market prices. Prior research establishes that option-implied volatility is a biased estimator of … future realized volatility. I use an analytical framework to identify accounting-based drivers of equity returns volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037345
We derive a model-free option-based formula to estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) within an asset pricing setting. We estimate CFER for the U.S. optionable stocks. We document that CFER is sizable, it predicts stock returns and it subsumes the effect of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932555
In this paper, we study forecasting problems of Bitcoin-realized volatility computed on data from the largest crypto … model and forecast Bitcoin volatility. The empirical results demonstrate that least squares model-averaging methods in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160813
We inspect the price volatility before, during, and after financial asset bubbles in order to uncover possible … commonalities and check empirically whether volatility might be used as an indicator or an early warning signal of an unsustainable … volatility increase before a crash, but we do not see this as a consistent behavior. We examine forty well-known bubbles and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011762277
influential for Value at Risk (VaR) performance than the conditional volatility specification. We also show that some recently … proposed asymmetric probability distributions and the APARCH and FGARCH volatility specifications beat more standard … parameter in conditional volatility in the APARCH and FGARCH models explains their better performance. Indeed, our estimates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949316