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Professional house price forecast data are consistent with a rational model where agents must learn about the parameters of the house price growth process and the underlying state of the housing market. Slow learning about the long-run mean can generate forecast bias, a response of forecasts to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349291
We examine how parameter learning amplifies the impact of macroeconomic shocks on equity prices and quantities in a standard production economy where a representative agent has Epstein-Zin preferences. An investor observes technology shocks which follow a regime-switching process but does not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851623
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012542894
Persistence risk is an endogenous source of risk that arises when a rational agent learns about the length of business … cycles. Persistence risk is positive during recessions and negative during expansions. This asymmetry, which solely results … from learning about persistence, causes expected returns, return volatility, and the price of risk to rise during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012932925
This paper introduces the rational inattention hypothesis (RI) -- that agents process information subject to finite channel constraints -- into a stochastic growth model with permanent technology shocks. We find that RI raises consumption volatility relative to output by introducing an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012727065
Galí (2014) showed that a monetary policy rule that raises interest rates in response to bubbles can paradoxically lead to larger bubbles. This comment shows that a central bank that wants to dampen bubbles can always do so by raising interest rates aggressively enough. This result is different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349449
first-order approximated solution built by perturbation methods accounts for risk. We show that risk matters economically in … a real business cycle (RBC) model with habit formation and capital adjustment costs and that neglecting risk leads to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834991
This paper studies the impact of financial sector size and leverage on business cycles and risk-free rates dynamics. We … model a general equilibrium productive economy where financial intermediaries provide costly risk mitigation to households … intermediaries' relative size, but may also mitigate the business cycle. Moreover, it makes risk-free rates pro-cyclical. Households …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838767
first-order approximated solution built by perturbation methods accounts for risk. We show that risk matters economically in … a real business cycle (RBC) model with habit formation, and capital adjustment costs and that neglecting risk leads to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852362
, cannot pool their idiosyncratic risks. Financial intermediaries provide costly risk pooling by issuing safe assets via … assets provision generate pro- or counter-cyclical real risk-free rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220659