Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in...

This paper examines the effect of debt and liquidity on corporate investment in a continuous-time framework. We show that stockholder-bondholder agency conflicts cause investment thresholds to be U-shaped in leverage and decreasing in liquidity. In the absence of tax effects, we derive the...

We examine how volatility risk, both at the aggregate market and individual stock level, is priced in the cross-section of expected stock returns. Stocks that have past high sensitivities to innovations in aggregate volatility have low average returns. We also find that stocks with past high...

We compare single factor Markov-functional and multi factor market models for hedging performance of Bermudan swaptions. We show that hedging performance of both models is comparable, thereby supporting the claim that Bermudan swaptions can be adequately risk-managed with single factor models....

This paper develops a model of the upstairs market where order size, beliefs, and prices are determined endogenously. We test the model's predictions using unique data for 5,625 equity trades during 1985-1992 that are known to be upstairs transactions and are identified as either buyer-or...

In this paper we present two direct methods, a pathwise method and a likelihood ratio method, for estimating derivatives of security prices using simulation. With the direct methods, the information from a single simulation can be used to estimate multiple derivatives along with a security's...

The paper examines three equity-based structural models to study the nonlinear relationship between equity and credit default swap (CDS) prices. These models differ in the specification of the default barrier. With cross-firm CDS premia and equity information, we are able to estimate and compare...

This paper presents some new results on the price discovery process in both the Canadian and U.S. 10-year Government bond markets using high frequency data not previously analyzed. Using techniques introduced by Hasbrouck (1995) and Gonzalo-Granger (1995), we look at the relative information...

The GM and Ford downgrade to junk status during May 2005 caused a wide-spread sell-off in their corporate bonds. Using a novel dataset, we document that this sell-off appears to have generated significant liquidity risk for market-makers, as evidenced in the significant imbalance in their quotes...

This paper examines empirically the relationship between electricity spot and futures prices, by analysing a decade of data for a set of short term-to-maturity futures contracts traded in the Nordic Power Exchange, Nord Pool. It is found that, on average, there are significant positive risk...