highlights the significance of a forecast that is politically accepted. This advances the literature beyond the measurement of … forecast error as the sole outcome, because accuracy is irrelevant if the budget process does not respect the forecast as a … political constraint. We provide a case illustration in Indiana by tracking the history of the state consensus forecast from the …

positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is …

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors. …

Are survey-based forecasts unbeatable? They are not. This paper introduces online price indices to forecast the … States. Similarly, our quarterly forecast for the US inflation rate consistently outperforms the Survey of Professional …

indicate that forecast errors of short-term projections for the current year exhibit serial correlation. It is conceivable that …