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talk about the economy? We propose a simple framework that allows us to estimate communication rules in the United States … based on text analysis with regularized regressions. We find strong evidence for systematic communication rules that vary …’s communication rule and use it to investigate how much of the disagreement between the market and the Fed come from disagreement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014264958
US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections for the federal funds rate are inherently subject to revision with the availability of new data. But when issued jointly with projections for macroeconomic aggregates, they also contain conditional information about the intended future policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018767
Central bank communication plays an important role in shaping market participants’ expectations. This paper studies a … economic dynamics, resulting in welfare-reducing fluctuations. On the contrary, central bank communication of policy rules …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003781685
talk about the economy? We propose a simple framework that allows us to estimate communication rules in the United States … based on text analysis with regularized regressions. We find strong evidence for systematic communication rules that vary …'s communication rule and use it to investigate how much of the disagreement between the market and the Fed come from disagreement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013485936
Optimal monetary policy studies typically rely on a single structural model and identification of model-specific rules that minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In our proposed approach, we take a large set of structural models and look for the model-robust...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013545641
This paper demonstrates how a target for money growth can be beneficial for an inflation targeting central bank acting under discretion. Because the growth rate of money is closely related to the change in the interest rate and he growth of real output, delegating a money growth target to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583901
When base velocity is a stable function of the Federal funds rate (FFR), the money base-nominal GDP targeting rule (McCallum rule) can be re-parameterised and presented in terms of FFR as the policy instrument. Comparison of this McCallum modified policy rule with the popular Taylor rule...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014113057
The paper derives the monetary policy reaction function implied by money growth targeting. It consists of an interest rate response to deviations of the inflation rate from target, to the change in the output gap, to money demand shocks and to the lagged interest rate. We show that this type of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010206357
This article aims to examine the monetary policy rule under an inflation targeting in Mongolia with a focus on its conformity to the Taylor principle, through two kinds of approaches: a monetary policy reaction function by the generalized-method-of-moments (GMM) estimation and a New Keynesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012322123
The design of monetary policy depends upon the targeting strategy adopted by the central bank. This strategy describes a set of policy preferences, which are actually the structural parameters to analyse monetary policy making. Accordingly, we develop a novel calibration method to identify...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011594051