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As I could not find a reliable mathematical and statistical method for studying the effect of information communication technology on businesses in the literature, I proposed a new research and analysis method that I also used to study the Hungarian economic sectors. An essential question for...
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Apart from a priori assumptions on instantaneous or long run effects of structural shocks, sign restrictions have become a prominent means for structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis. Moreover, second order heterogeneity of systems of times series can be fruitfully exploited for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010482469
stock return and price forecasts. The results show that the simulation by a VECX econometric model is robust as seen by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129177
The main goal of this paper is to better understand the behavior of credit spreads in the past and the potential risk of unexpected future credit spread changes. One important consideration to note regarding credit spreads is the fact that bond spreads contain a liquidity premium, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105185
takes into account simulation noise under the assumption of overlapping simulation draws. We show that as long as the number … of simulation draws $R$ and the number of markets $T$ approach infinity, our estimator is $\sqrt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904247
combines economic forecasts and “expert” views with portfolio simulation methods.Expert scenarios are typically described in … the portfolio P&L, can be estimated directly from a pre-computed simulation using Least Squares Regressions (LSR). All the … Testing (LSST). LSST is a simulation-based conditional scenario generation method that offers many advantages over more …
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historical simulation, which supplements the data in an emerging market with data from other markets. The principle behind this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004402
The paper introduces four unbiased probability-simulators which produce continuous (simulated) log-likelihood functions with almost everywhere continuous derivatives. Identification conditions are derived which show that in the presence of intercepts in the latent utilities, then the shocks'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858456