power for inflation or, put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset … - consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and inflation ranging from 1620 to 2021 - and employ state-of-the-art Bayesian … estimation methods. Specifically, we employ VAR models with drifting parameters and stochastic volatility which are used to …

VARs. To address these issues, we propose VAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine … transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting density forecasts are much less sensitive to outliers in the data … the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier …

relationship between money growth and inflation in a Bayesian Markov Switching framework for a set of four countries, the US, the … money growth and inflation appears to be nonlinear, as our estimation results identify multiple inflation regimes displaying … high inflation regime but the influence of money on such signal seems to be relevant mainly in the 70s and the early 80s, i …

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid … statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect that shocks to money growth has on inflation weakened notably after … monetary aggregates to inflation. …

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid … statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect of money growth on inflation weakened notably after the 1980s before … maximum impact of money growth on inflation is increasing in the trend level of inflation. These results caution against …