We show that disentangling sentiment-induced biases from fundamental expectations significantly improves the accuracy and consistency of probabilistic forecasts. Using data from 1994 to 2017, we analyze 15 stochastic models and risk-preference combinations and in all possible cases a simple...

This paper presents a tractable model of non-linear dynamics of market returns using a Langevin approach.Due to non-linearity of an interaction potential, the model admits regimes of both small and large return fluctuations. Langevin dynamics are mapped onto an equivalent quantum mechanical (QM)...

Stock market volatility clusters in time, appears fractionally integrated, carries a risk premium, and exhibits asymmetric leverage effects relative to returns. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined by the difference between the risk-neutral and objective expectations of the...

Using a real-time random regime shift technique, we identify and discuss two different regimes in the dynamics of credit spreads during 2002-2012: a liquidity regime and a default regime. Both regimes contribute to the patterns observed in credit spreads. The liquidity regime seems to explain...

Credit risk models like Moody's KMV are now well established in the market and give bond managers reliable estimates of default probabilities for individual firms. Until now it has been hard to relate those probabilities to the actual credit spreads observed on the market for corporate bonds....

The recently developed rough Bergomi (rBergomi) model is a rough fractional stochastic volatility (RFSV) model which can generate more realistic term structure of at-the-money volatility skews compared with other RFSV models. However, its non-Markovianity brings mathematical and computational...

This paper derives a general equilibrium option-pricing model for a European call assuming that the economy is exogenously driven by a dividend process following Hamilton's (1989) Markov regime switching model. The derived formula is used to investigate if the European call option prices are...

We develop a simple robust test for the presence of jumps in the price of an asset underlying an option. Our test examines the prices of at and out-of-the-money options as the time to maturity of the option approaches zero. We show that these prices converge to zero at speeds which depend on...

The objective of this paper is to calculate, model and forecast realized volatility, using high frequency stock market index data. The approach taken differs from the existing literature in several aspects. First, it is shown that the decay of the serial dependence of high frequency returns with...

We revisit the Roll (1977) critique regarding the unobservability of the market portfolio in the framework of the CAPM. It is equivalent to the unobservability of the pricing kernel (also known as the stochastic discount factor) in the language of the modern asset pricing theory. We advocate an...