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How much do term premiums matter for explaining the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates? A lot. We characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of professional forecasters covering more than 500 survey-horizon...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477349
plausible size, and the estimation precision is much higher than in previous studies that use the canonical CBM. Our results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412353
plausible size, and the estimation precision is much higher than in previous studies that use the canonical CBM. Such a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010388611
This paper shows that the impact of labor income risk on the cross-section of expected stock returns depends crucially … robust evidence that the two- to four-year horizon strongly dominates. Labor income risk at this medium term horizon carries … a highly significant price of risk, while at other horizons it does not. A simple two-factor model that includes the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012888966
This article reviews empirical methods to assess risk and return in private equity. I discuss data and econometric … issues for deal-level, fund-level, and publicly traded partnerships data. Risk-adjusted return estimates vary substantially … the stock market, the average venture capital (VC) fund earned positive risk-adjusted returns before the turn of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897118
risk for the market portfolio is consistent with theory. The granular residual is volatile and less informative about real … activity than our adjusted index, potentially rationalizing lower/zero risk compensation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012849714
This paper studies the empirically relevant problem of estimation and inference in diffusion index forecasting models … squares estimation of the factor augmented regression and propose a break test. The empirical application uncovers … instabilities in the linkages between bond risk premia and macroeconomic factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903066
the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds. Longer-horizon short rate disagreement co-moves with term premiums. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249767