This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

We show that the class of linear-rational square-root (LRSQ) model is able to match the cross section of yields and the time variability of conditional yield volatility simultaneously. Models in this class are, in this regard, able to break the tension noted for the affine term structure models...

A decision maker constructs a convex set of nonnegative martingales to use as likelihood ratios that represent alternatives that are statistically close to a decision maker's baseline model. The set is twisted to include some specific models of interest. Max-min expected utility over that set...