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This paper constructs a global tail risk (GTR) index and examines the role of GTR in predicting the volatility of … international stock markets. Our empirical results emphasize that GTR contains valuable information to predict the stock volatility … improve the forecasting accuracy of international stock market volatility, especially considering the time-varying regime …
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This paper analyzes conditional threshold effects of stock market volatility on crude oil market volatility. We use the … terms of predictive ability. CoTAR often outperforms TAR when predicting a downside volatility measure; it is a useful …
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