literature, we find that none of the survey forecasts outperforms a simple random walk forecast!, which predicts the future …

Much research has been concerned with forecast efficiency regressions. Recently, Patton and Timmermann (2012) proposed … a more powerful kind of forecast efficiency regression at multiple horizons, which provides evidence against the … efficiency of the Fed's Greenbook forecasts. I use their forecast efficiency evaluation to propose a method for adjusting the …

interpreting economic forecasts. This framework's value is illustrated by re-examining mean square forecast errors from dynamic … as nonlinearity bias and the possible nonmonotonicity and nonexistence of mean square forecast errors in isolation from …

as being like a safety checklist for a commercial airliner — if the forecast is important, it is important to check all … forecast.Primarily due to the strong emphasis placed on empirical comparisons of alternative methods, researchers have made … method to forecast many times series. Entry into the competition required that methods were fully disclosed. Entrants …

research. Many forecast surveys ask their participants for fixed-event forecasts. Since fixed-event forecasts have seasonal … very flexible. The forecast to be approximated as well as the information employed by the approximation can be any linear …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

predict realized correlations. This paper considers a MIDAS approach to forecast realized correlation matrices. A MIDAS model …

with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are used primarily to predict output growth and unemployment … interest rates. We show that survey participants can considerably improve forecast accuracy for macroeconomic outcomes by …