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How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?

Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2023

We study the effects of forward-looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247283

Interest rate surprises : a tale of two shocks

Nunes, Ricardo; Ozdagli, Ali; Tang, Jenny - 2022 - This version: January 2022

policy shock) and interest rate movements driven by exogenous information about the economy from the central bank (the … information shock). In order to disentangle the effects of these two shocks, we use interest rate changes on days of macroeconomic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012815123

Monetary policy surprises, central bank information shocks, and economic activity in a small open economy

Laséen, Stefan - 2020

restrictions on stock market changes around the announcement to separate structural monetary policy shock from central bank …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309007

Forward guidance matters : disentangling monetary policy shocks

Ferreira, Leonardo Nogueira - 2020

Central banks have usually employed short-term rates as the main instrument of monetary policy. In the last decades, however, forward guidance has also become a central tool for monetary policy. In an innovative way this paper combines two sources of extraneous information - high frequency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012295693

Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks on real oil prices

Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2023

role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially … replace roles previously attributed to the precautionary oil demand shock and the aggregate demand shock during the three … major oil shock periods of the 1970s-1980s, post-2008 and during the 2020-2021 pandemic. The results show that both real oil …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014295388

Superstar central bankers

Neuenkirch, Matthias; Tillmann, Peter - 2013

The personalities of central bankers moved center stage during the recent financial crisis. Some central bankers even gained superstar status. In this paper, we evaluate the pivotal role of superstar central bankers by assessing the difference an outstanding governor makes to economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010356447

Superstar central bankers

Neuenkirch, Matthias; Tillmann, Peter - 2013

The personalities of central bankers moved center stage during the recent financial crisis. Some central bankers even gained "superstar" status. In this paper, we evaluate the pivotal role of superstar central bankers by assessing the difference an outstanding governor makes to economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010223512

Superstar central bankers : conference paper

Neuenkirch, Matthias; Tillmann, Peter - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010487271

Financial Market Illiquidity Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics : Evidence from the UK

Ellington, Michael - 2018

We examine the link between financial market illiquidity and macroeconomic dynamics by fitting a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility to UK data from 1988Q1 to 2016Q4. We capture liquidity conditions in the stock market using a battery of illiquidity proxies. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012926466

Monetary policy, external instruments and heteroskedasticity

Rieth, Malte; Schlaak, Thore; Podstawski, Maximilian - 2019 - This version: February 1, 2019

We develop a vector autoregressive framework that combines an external instrument and heteroskedasticity for the identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing both the relevance and exogeneity condition...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012041145