A four-year series of subjective-probability forecasting tournaments sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed a host of replicable drivers of predictive accuracy, including experimental interventions such as training in probabilistic reasoning, anti-groupthink teaming, and...

Forecasting tournaments have shown it is possible to improve the accuracy of forecasts of real-world events that sophisticated observers often supposed are too idiosyncratic to be pinned down by numerical probabilities. Building on this research program, the authors propose the Alpha-Brier...

On 8 October 2015, CFA Montréal hosted its annual Asset Allocation Forum under the theme “Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting.” Two asset management approaches were compared: • The factor investing approach, which relies on identifying common factors in security returns...

We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowd sourcing methods – prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants made forecasts on 261 events over two seasons of a geopolitical prediction tournament. Some forecasters traded...