Geopolitical forecasting tournaments have stimulated the development of methods for improving probability judgments of real-world events. But these innovations have focused on easier-to quantify variables, like personnel selection, training, teaming, and crowd aggregation—and bypassed messier...

This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique...

Forecasting tournaments are misaligned with the goal of producing actionable forecasts of existential risk, an extreme-stakes domain with slow accuracy feedback and elusive proxies for long-run outcomes. We show how to improve alignment by measuring facets of human judgment that play central...

Reliable detection of forecasting skill is slow and resource-intensive. Forecasters need to answer dozens of questions, which may take months or years to resolve. To accelerate this process, we propose the Full Accuracy Score (FAS), a measure that combines the strengths of ground-truth-based...

Skeptics see long-range geopolitical forecasting as quixotic. A more nuanced view is that although predictability tends to decline over time, its rate of descent is variable. The current study gives geopolitical forecasters a sporting chance by focusing on slow-motion variables with low base...